UKTC Archive

RE: We should all have resistographs

Subject: RE: We should all have resistographs
From: David Addison
Date: Mar 05 2004 12:51:17
I understand what you're saying BUT the 120:1 figure
relates to 'a year' (HSE Arb News)

Presume there are an estimated x no. of arbs working
and y no. of accidents for any given year

y/x=0.83% i.e 120:1

Surely if it was per arb operation approximately 50%
of your climbers/year would have a serious accident or
die!

Statistics are like a lamp-post to a drunken man -
more for leaning on than illumination!

 --- James Dunn <jdunn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.gov.uk> wrote:
The thing with probabilities is that they are
designed to be
extrapolable. So therefore a probability isn't time
limited to a certain
period

Just to fill some time I have included a working
example.

 ...so for every 120 arb operations carried out, 1
will result in
serious injury / death. 

So if in one year there are 24,000 arb operations,
there will be 200
serious injuries / deaths, factor this down by the
Highest common
denominator (divide both sides by 200) and you get
120:1

But if in two years there are only 12,000 arb
operations, there will be
100 serious injuries / deaths, again there is the
probability of 120:1 ,
so it doesn't matter what the time span is, the
probability is based on
the number of positive events against / number of
negative events.

Here endeth the lesson, I must apologise as it has
jaff all to do with
trees, but there just seemed to be a bit of
confusion about the context
of the the figures.

Cheers

James



-----Original Message-----
From: uktc-bounce@xxxxxx.tree-care.info
[mailto:uktc-bounce@xxxxxx.tree-care.info] On Behalf
Of David Addison
Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 12:01 PM
To: UK Tree Care
Subject: Re: We should all have resistographs


Found it! - 120:1 in any one year (includes
forestry)

Bryn Andrews <bryn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.co.uk> wrote:

Most likely its the same as for driving -each time
you drive theres the
25,000:1 chance of a serious car accident (based
on
averages etc) - whereas
for tree work each time you do an arb operation
you
run a 120:1 risk of
serious accident - ask the HSE, they'll know.


=====
Regards 

David J Addison BEng MSc 
Parsons Brinckerhoff - Building Design Management 
WDHS/WSDS Managing Agent 
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fax: 020 7XXX XXXX 
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=====
Regards 

David J Addison BEng MSc 
Parsons Brinckerhoff - Building Design Management 
WDHS/WSDS Managing Agent 
tel: 020 7XXX XXXX 
fax: 020 7XXX XXXX 
e-mail: addisond@xxxxxxxx.com

The information contained in this e-mail is confidential.  The information is 
intended for the exclusive use of the individual(s) or organisation specified 
above. Any unauthorised dissemination or copying of this e-mail, or misuse or 
wrongful disclosure of information contained in it is strictly prohibited and 
may be illegal.  Please notify the sender by telephone immediately should you 
have received this mail in error.


        
        
                
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