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Reply interwoven with original for context.
On 22 August 2008 13:05, Simon Pryce Arboriculture wrote:
If something is foreseeable it means that it is likely to
happen or there is a possiblity of it happening at some point
in the future, but you can't say when, how etc.
That seems a fair statement as far as it goes. The problem is that some
things are more likely to happen than others. If we take the position
that if an 'incident' was foreseeable then the owner is liable, and
define 'foreseeable' as entailing any possibility, no matter how small,
that it will happen at some point in the future, then we are doomed to
spend an awful lot of time inspecting, then felling trees.
Somewhere the concept of reasonableness needs to be introduced. That is
what is missing from the idea of 'foreseeable'.
Most tree related events are foreseeable, the really hard bit
is predicting them. If the insurance industry had realised
that we wouldn't have gone down the SRA cul de sac.
I'm going to be radical here and disagree. The SRA was a cul de sac
precisely because of that sloppy use of language. The SRA did not, could
not and never would predict anything. Nor should it have done. Nor did
it need to. The bizarre thing about the SRA was that it had the right
name - Subsidence *Risk Assessment*. It assessed risk. It did not
predict. Yet all the critiscm of it, even by its own author, was based
on its failure to accurately predict subsidence.
And the problem did not lie with the insurance industry's failure to
grasp that tree events can not be predicted. The insurance industry is
entirely happy with the concept of the risk. It's whole business is
built on assessing and gambling on risk. The problem lay with the
arboricultural industry's inability to distinguish risk assessment from
prediction.
And the really scary thing is, we're still having the same arguments.
How depressing is that?
--
Chris Hastie
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