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SC insertions follow...
-------------- Original message from Simon Pryce Arboriculture
<simon@xxxxxxxxxxx.co.uk>:
I haven't checked a dictionary, but as I see it the words have distinct
meanings, or at least shades of meaning, although they are often mixed.
If something is foreseeable it means that it is likely to happen or
there is a possiblity of it happening at some point in the future, but
you can't say when, how etc. For it to be predictable you need to be
able to say with reasonable certainty when it will happen. I think
that's the point Chris was making earlier - if you buy a ticket its
foreseeable that you can win the lottery but, even though the odds are
known, its not predictable.
Most tree related events are foreseeable,
SC Let's take a closer look at that. If we do say "if you buy a ticket its
foreseeable that you can win the lottery" that is the same as saying it is
foreseeable that EVERY tree may fail. Somewhere in the literature there is a
statement that it is a function of the laws of thermodynamics that every tree
will fail... even if it is after it dies. And negligence does not attach to
every tree. I think the legal phrase is "reasonably foreseeable." Or
"unreasonable risk." So it becomes "how foreseeable?" We also see phrases
like "imminent risk." The degree to which that narrower foreseeability is
the same as predictability is a matter of a) how imminent we make the
foreseeability or b) how wide or narrow the prediction interval is. If both
are very specifc the terms converge. Otherwise they don't. In everyday,
practical terms, predictability is "it will fail Tuesday afternoon at 3," or
"it will fail in the next wind >30mph." Forseeability is "it is very likely
that it will fail in less than extraordinary conditions in the near term and
if it does it is very likely someone's head will be bashed." We might go
back to Mike's definition of the tree that's obviously "fecked." But that's
still not prediction. I drive by trees every day that have been "fecked" for
years and they are still standing there.
SC
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