----- Original Message -----
From: Edmund Hopkins
To: UK Tree Care
Sent: Monday, July 06, 2009 3:22 AM
Subject: RE: What does likelihood mean [Scanned]
Likelihood is a far easier word to define than likely, I reckon. I wonder
if the word "possible" enjoys a true scientific definition also?
SC well, I think possible means not impossible, It can happen. So any
single point prediction can happen. This one tree can fail on a Tuesday
afternoon at 3:27 PM in a 4mph wind...oh in the domant condition. Now, any
single point prediction placed on a frequency distribution curve has no area
beneatth the curve and thus no probablity, that is zero. So I'm not sure
possible is amenable to scientific desripition or as scientific description
as some probability.
Now, that said, a professor or forest statistics explained to me once that
a forester who is very familar with a given forest might conduct a subjective
sample and more accurately describe the forest than with a by-the -book
random sample. But that there is no way to scientifically support the
subjective sample!
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Greetings Forum. We are running a THREATS training day 19th August for two
local authorities & have spare capacity. The day will consist of training
in the use of THREATS, including advanced tree defect assessment,
comprising a mix of class & field work. Probable venue St Albans. Cost
dependant on numbers, but no more than £180 (exc VAT). Contact JFL or
Sally on 01767 641648 or email jfl@xxxxx.uk.com or baldwin@xxxxx.uk.com.
Booking will close 15th July @ 1200
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