UKTC Archive

RE: VALID Tree Risk-Benefit Management Plan - Risk Reduction Work Priorities

Subject: RE: VALID Tree Risk-Benefit Management Plan - Risk Reduction Work Priorities
From: Dom Gane
Date: Dec 20 2017 15:22:22
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Thanks David. Still doesn't explain how I place a value on a risk though.
I strongly suspect that drawing attention to the statement below will
lead to the kind of circular arguments I remember from a few years ago.
I think Duncan has made some headway into quantifying the relative
failure probability of tree forks, I'm awaiting delivery of his book.
We have Matthecks work, but his data has, perhaps, limited application.
We may apply a load test, in some circumstances, if budgets allow.
These new data logging devices are intriguing. I'm quite interested in
modelling and they appear to make use of non linear dynamics in order to
predict a phase transition. If you have any info on them I would really
love to read it. I think there is great potential there, but am puzzled
by the cost of what appears to amount to the guts of a budget mobile
phone.
I suppose we might collect and analyze masses of data on tree failures
and estimate the probabilities of failure in certain classes. The woods
are a good place to see tree failures.
This allows us to refine what we really have to go on which is our
experience.

"VALID's amber risks require the likelihood of failure to be benchmarked from 
red"



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