UKTC Archive

Re: VALID Tree Risk-Benefit Management Plan - Risk Reduction Work Priorities

Subject: Re: VALID Tree Risk-Benefit Management Plan - Risk Reduction Work Priorities
From: Dom Gane
Date: Dec 20 2017 17:49:13
[Text converted from HTML]
Thanks Michael
I'll track some of those down.
All best
Dom


On 20 Dec 2017 15:37, Michael Richardson <richardsontreecare@xxxxxx.com>
wrote:

  Estimating, let alone quantifying the probability of failure
  associated
  with any defect is I think the hardest part of any risk assessment. I
  recently saw a report where 1338 of 7500 trees was described as being
  at
  high probability of failure over the next 18 months. Two years after
  the
  report not a single tree had failed!

  If you are interested in forks Slater is not the only person. If you
  look
  at morpho-physio approach to forks we find works by Halle, Rimbaud,
  Millet
  and Drenou. Brian Kane has done some work and has a student or two
  who
  have completed thesis on branch failure and strength. Matt Follett
  (who
  seems to have disappeared) did a lot of work on sway motion in limbs.

  I can try to did up the thesis written by Kane's student.

  Michael Richardson B.Sc.F., BCMA
  Ontario MTCU Qualified Arborist
  Richardson Tree Care
  Richardsontreecare.ca
  613-475-2877
  800-769-9183

  <http://www.richardsontreecare.ca/images/Tree_Doc_logo_email.png>


  On Wed, Dec 20, 2017 at 10:22 AM, Dom Gane
  <uktc@xxxxxx.tree-care.info>
  wrote:

  > [Text converted from HTML]
  > Thanks David. Still doesn't explain how I place a value on a risk
  though.
  > I strongly suspect that drawing attention to the statement below
  will
  > lead to the kind of circular arguments I remember from a few years
  ago.
  > I think Duncan has made some headway into quantifying the relative
  > failure probability of tree forks, I'm awaiting delivery of his
  book.
  > We have Matthecks work, but his data has, perhaps, limited
  application.
  > We may apply a load test, in some circumstances, if budgets allow.
  > These new data logging devices are intriguing. I'm quite interested
  in
  > modelling and they appear to make use of non linear dynamics in
  order to
  > predict a phase transition. If you have any info on them I would
  really
  > love to read it. I think there is great potential there, but am
  puzzled
  > by the cost of what appears to amount to the guts of a budget
  mobile
  > phone.
  > I suppose we might collect and analyze masses of data on tree
  failures
  > and estimate the probabilities of failure in certain classes. The
  woods
  > are a good place to see tree failures.
  > This allows us to refine what we really have to go on which is our
  > experience.
  >
  > "VALID's amber risks require the likelihood of failure to be
  benchmarked
  > from
  > red"
  >
  >
  >
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  >



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