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Thanks Michael
I'll track some of those down.
All best
Dom
On 20 Dec 2017 15:37, Michael Richardson <richardsontreecare@xxxxxx.com>
wrote:
Estimating, let alone quantifying the probability of failure
associated
with any defect is I think the hardest part of any risk assessment. I
recently saw a report where 1338 of 7500 trees was described as being
at
high probability of failure over the next 18 months. Two years after
the
report not a single tree had failed!
If you are interested in forks Slater is not the only person. If you
look
at morpho-physio approach to forks we find works by Halle, Rimbaud,
Millet
and Drenou. Brian Kane has done some work and has a student or two
who
have completed thesis on branch failure and strength. Matt Follett
(who
seems to have disappeared) did a lot of work on sway motion in limbs.
I can try to did up the thesis written by Kane's student.
Michael Richardson B.Sc.F., BCMA
Ontario MTCU Qualified Arborist
Richardson Tree Care
Richardsontreecare.ca
613-475-2877
800-769-9183
<http://www.richardsontreecare.ca/images/Tree_Doc_logo_email.png>
On Wed, Dec 20, 2017 at 10:22 AM, Dom Gane
<uktc@xxxxxx.tree-care.info>
wrote:
> [Text converted from HTML]
> Thanks David. Still doesn't explain how I place a value on a risk
though.
> I strongly suspect that drawing attention to the statement below
will
> lead to the kind of circular arguments I remember from a few years
ago.
> I think Duncan has made some headway into quantifying the relative
> failure probability of tree forks, I'm awaiting delivery of his
book.
> We have Matthecks work, but his data has, perhaps, limited
application.
> We may apply a load test, in some circumstances, if budgets allow.
> These new data logging devices are intriguing. I'm quite interested
in
> modelling and they appear to make use of non linear dynamics in
order to
> predict a phase transition. If you have any info on them I would
really
> love to read it. I think there is great potential there, but am
puzzled
> by the cost of what appears to amount to the guts of a budget
mobile
> phone.
> I suppose we might collect and analyze masses of data on tree
failures
> and estimate the probabilities of failure in certain classes. The
woods
> are a good place to see tree failures.
> This allows us to refine what we really have to go on which is our
> experience.
>
> "VALID's amber risks require the likelihood of failure to be
benchmarked
> from
> red"
>
>
>
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