UKTC Archive

Re: RE: RE: Statistical Risk vs Ecosystem Services - does this compute?

Subject: Re: RE: RE: Statistical Risk vs Ecosystem Services - does this compute?
From: Ben Larkham
Date: Dec 06 2019 15:34:12
c'mon Jim and Julian its Friday afternoon - I was hoping for more

perhaps someone could set out the statistical, or otherwise, risk analysis
of sticking one's head above the parapet when at war
vs doing the same when not at war.
;-)



On Fri, 6 Dec 2019 at 14:21, Julian Morris <jamorris@xxxxx.com> wrote:

Must I name name? I think this is one of these situations where emotion is
being inferred in its absence. I am totally chilled today, positively
hypothermic.

Julian A. Morris - Professional Tree Services
jamtrees.co.uk  and  highhedgesscotland.com
0778 XXX XXXX - 0141 XXX XXXX


Sent: Friday, December 06, 2019 at 2:04 PM
From: "Jim Quaife" <jq@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.co.uk>
To: "UK Tree Care" <uktc@xxxxxx.tree-care.info>
Subject: RE: RE: Statistical Risk vs Ecosystem Services - does this
compute?

For goodness sake relax Julian - it's a common turn of phrase and the
military meaning is not the only one.  Why on earth do you imagine that
anyone might be at war?
Chill out.
Jim

-----Original Message-----
From: uktc-request@xxxxxx.tree-care.info [mailto:
uktc-request@xxxxxx.tree-care.info] On Behalf Of Julian Morris
Sent: 06 December 2019 13:24
To: UK Tree Care
Subject: Re: RE: Statistical Risk vs Ecosystem Services - does this
compute?

Jim, I don't like the parapet analogy, we're not at war. I'd like to
think we can all freely and frankly express and exchange ideas and opinions
on UKTC without fear of hostility so that we collectively move towards
better understanding and practise.

Julian A. Morris - Professional Tree Services
jamtrees.co.uk  and  highhedgesscotland.com
0778 XXX XXXX - 0141 XXX XXXX


Sent: Friday, December 06, 2019 at 11:42 AM
From: "Jim Quaife" <jq@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.co.uk>
To: "UK Tree Care" <uktc@xxxxxx.tree-care.info>
Subject: RE: Statistical Risk vs Ecosystem Services - does this
compute?

Hi Chris,
I am grateful for your tongue-in-cheek response to my description of
"random" in the world of statistics, which was merely to illustrate the
difficulties of assessing amenity trees.
To have an average figure that you calculated is very helpful to
provide sense of perspective.  You are not acting randomly, it is the
consideration of tree accidents that is statistically random. (This, as I
intimated, is something that I have only comparatively recently got my head
around, having nattered to someone who is professionally involved with
stats).
Overall as a general "yardstick" to use in policy terms the ratio you
have produced is very interesting - you've done the research so I am in no
position to comment one way or the other, but on the face of it, it seems
reasonable - although given the extremely low occurrence of tree-related
accidents perhaps it is too cautious?
How one might apply it to a single tree in any given intimate
situation would I am sure prompt "debate".
We appreciate your work and it is never easy to stick one's head above
the parapet!
Best,
Jim


-----Original Message-----
From: uktc-request@xxxxxx.tree-care.info [mailto:
uktc-request@xxxxxx.tree-care.info] On Behalf Of Corder, Chris
Sent: 06 December 2019 11:18
To: UK Tree Care
Subject: Re: Statistical Risk vs Ecosystem Services - does this
compute?

Cheers all,

I think that thread got randomised! But thanks for thoughts on the
matter.
In a long winded kind of way, I suppose I was wondering if my
calculations show that trees are about 12.5 times more 'beneficial' than
they are 'risky'
Other studies have cited 3:1 returns in terms of COST/Benefit (after
about 40 years, off the top of my head).
I wonder whether these calculations show a return of 12:1 in terms of
RISK/Benefit
Am I on the right track?
Or am I acting randomly?

All the best,
Chris

Christopher Corder PDArb (RFS), BSc (Hons) in arboriculture, MArborA
Assistant Arboricultural Manager
Hampshire Highways
Tel: 0300 XXX XXXX
Web: www.hants.gov.uk/roads
@Hantshighways

© Hampshire County Council 2017 | Disclaimer | Privacy Statement




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