UKTC Archive

RE: RE: Statistical Risk vs Ecosystem Services - does this compute?

Subject: RE: RE: Statistical Risk vs Ecosystem Services - does this compute?
From: David Evans
Date: Dec 09 2019 10:02:14
<<This can be seen in the Monte Carlo simuations that QTRA runs to produce 
representative numbers for the permutations of combinations of target 
probability of failure and severity.>>

Hi Julian

They're not representative numbers though are they.  They're not 
representative numbers because there's no data behind them.  You're one of 
the few that kind of figured out that the Monte Carlo Simulations used here 
are bogus.  Because there's no data to sample, there's no point in running 
Monte Carlo Simulations because no matter how many iterations you run, all 
they'll do is generate the mean average value for each input.  You may 
remember, when you spotted the mean average value issue and offered to stay 
quiet about it.  Great to see you honouring that pledge and happily 
sacrificing the truth of the matter on the UKTC.

Cheers

Acer Ventura




-- 
The UK Tree Care mailing list
To unsubscribe send mailto:uktc-unsubscribe@xxxxxx.tree-care.info

The UKTC is supported by Bosky Trees arboricultural consultancy
http://www.boskytrees.co.uk/