UKTC Archive

Re: Tree failure potential assessment study See Tree Risk-Benefit Management Strategy | Update Inbox

Subject: Re: Tree failure potential assessment study See Tree Risk-Benefit Management Strategy | Update Inbox
From: Wayne Tyson
Date: Jan 27 2020 20:28:15
I quite agree with Mike's statement "every tree and its content is
completely unique and needs to be assessed as such." The key word is
"relevance." It all depends upon how one interprets the statistics, and
certainly they can be misinterpreted and misused. One of the "texts" in a
statistics course I took decades ago what entitled, *Lies, Damn Lies, and
Statistics*.

Let's say that the database could be asked for the balance-point, length,
and diameter at the breaking point of limb failures and whether or not the
limbs were observed to have been bending or (post-mortem as well) were
permanently bent downward, and whether or not the bending was the result of
factors other than stress, such as shading and other forms of growth
suppression. In other words, correlation is not causation, but it can be
informative if the data-set is large enough.

I'll appreciate any (including Mike's) contributions of examples of how,
properly interpreted in a disciplined way (as opposed to presumption, for
example, based on traditional "knowledge" or hunches based on experience)
information that forms a pattern, could, in itself, be useless. There's
experience that's based on critical thinking, and "experience" based on
unquestioned authority (which, *ipso facto*, is rigid by definition) or and
unchangeable, unchallengeable mind. That is, I likewise agree with Mike's
contention that  "quasi-quantitative knowledge and opinion"can lead one
down the garden path.

Wayne

PS: Mike, if my response did not fully address your point, please let me
know *the particulars *and accept my apologies for my negligence.



On Mon, Jan 27, 2020 at 11:48 AM AV Arboriculture <mike@xxxxxxx.co.uk> wrote:

Wayne, I'm not sure what kind of database you mean?  I would argue that
every tree and its content is completely unique and needs to be assessed as
such, albeit using any of the (mental or physical) tools that we have tat
our disposal.  I guess could be some relevance to a database when it comes
to general species characteristics; maybe you could explain further?  But
when it comes to tree assessment, I think that there should always be an
interface between quasi-quantitative knowledge and opinion - opinion that
is bolstered by experience, knowledge and critical & analytical thinking.

That's my tuppence worth.

Mike Charkow


----- Original Message -----
From: "Wayne Tyson" <wt750mv@xxxxxx.com>
To: "uktc" <uktc@xxxxxx.tree-care.info>
Sent: Monday, 27 January, 2020 19:40:29
Subject: Tree failure potential assessment study See Tree Risk-Benefit
Management Strategy | Update Inbox

This is intended to relate my own perspective on the subject, with which I
understand that some may differ. I intend to post several times, in the
hopes of simplifying the discussion by discussing one issue or coherent
subject at a time, perhaps ending with a general and more comprehensive
discussion of the results. Of course, I entertain no illusions that the
discussion will ever "end," nor, in my view, should it. I *hope* that posts
and responses will be confined to *issues*, with personalities left out. I
am not, however, going to hold my breath.

My study is restricted to assessment of the condition of the tree; it
leaves out any consideration of "risk."

For starters, I believe that the biggest elephant in the room is the
absence of useful data. I know of no central database for the assembly of
relevant data and a sufficiently disciplined practice of data collection
and contribution to a central database that can be readily accessed and
assembled according to the user's needs. "Opinion" is dangerous territory,
especially in the absence of relevant facts.

Feel free to post your own relevant subjects or issues for discussion--I'm
not trying to run the show here.

Wayne
US foreigner



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The UKTC is supported by Bosky Trees arboricultural consultancy
http://www.boskytrees.co.uk/