UKTC Archive

Tree Risk Communication

Subject: Tree Risk Communication
From: David Evans
Date: Jul 31 2020 09:41:31
Those of you who have to explain tree risk to civilians might find this


You're at greater risk from going on a 200 miles round trip in a car to
visit friends for a weekend than from branches or trees falling over a whole


I think this is such a relatable comparative risk that everyone accepts
without thought, and usually involves driving past trees, I'm using it in
the next version of VALID's Tree Risk-Benefit Management Strategies that I'm
working on.


*A micromort is a one in a million chance of death


The risk from a 200 miles road trip = 1 micromort


The annual risk from trees = less than 1 micromort


For those of you who are interested in this kind of stuff.  The 200 miles
statistic is from Tim Harford's marvellous 'Cautionary Tales - The
Spreadsheet of Life and Death', available here.


It's about why the Value of Statistical Life is so important.  The tragic
tale of Clive Stone is a neat illustration of the folly of not using a VSOL,
and a great skewering of populist politics.  Concerning trees, it explains
why the costs of tree risk assessment and management are a crucial part of
the risk equation.  And why the, 'If it saves one life' argument is an empty




Acer Ventura

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