UKTC Archive

Re: Tree Risk Communication

Subject: Re: Tree Risk Communication
From: Wayne Tyson
Date: Aug 03 2020 20:14:36
I fully realize that, in my case at least, that WC was right when he said
that the UK and the US were peoples divided by a common language, so I beg
your indulgence if I misunderstand or misinterpret--I look forward to being
corrected on specific details, but but I find vague generalizations and
hints difficult to guess at with respect to what the responder actually has
in mind. It would be a great help if responders would, when pointing out
the error of my ways, to cite the specific statement(s) with which they
disagree.

I heartily do endorse, however, that ". . . using numbers to imply status,
authority, or accuracy" is fallacious. On the other hand, I find
"guesswork" and "experience" fall short of, *as distinguished from "risk,"*
more correctly than incorrectly, assessing the potential for partial or
complete tree failure incidents. Trying to put numbers on this complex,
multi-faceted phenomenon is not possible without *relevant data* upon which
to base the numbers. One might say, at the risk of being deadly humorous,
that "rating" a tree's failure potential (not risk) as "low," "moderate,"
or "high" might be considered a WAG. At the very least, a SWAG is needed.
And any profession should be growing in competence rather than treading
water, as it were . . .

"The more one generalizes about a population, the less one knows about any
individual in that population." --Henry Geiger

Do I presume correctly that everyone has read *Lies, Damn Lies, and
Statistics*?

I should probably re-state that I do not rush into the realm of "risk." I
fear to tread there.

Respectfully but perhaps differently,
Wayne

On Mon, Aug 3, 2020 at 7:00 AM David Evans <david@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx.com> wrote:

<<a gloss on 'numberwang' might be helpful>>

Good point, Jerry

Here's the first edition of Numberwang on YouTube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0obMRztklqU

For those of you who can't play YouTube at work.

https://thatmitchellandwebb.fandom.com/wiki/Numberwang

Numberwang has since evolved into a wider meaning of using numbers to
imply status, authority, or accuracy.

Cheers

Acer Ventura




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The UKTC forum is supported by Bosky Trees arboricultural consultancy and
Stockholm Tree Pits
https://www.stockholmtreepits.co.uk